The Piceance Creek Basin is located in northwestern Colorado, midway between the Colorado and White Rivers and west of the Grand Hogback. During the summers of 1973 and 1974, selected areas of this region were intensively surveyed. On the basis of the data gathered, a predictive model is formulated. This model may be used to suggest areas of potential occupation in areas which are similar in environment, but untested archaeologically.
The method selects discrete items of the modern environment that display statistical correlation with observed site distribution. These items are then grouped by cluster analysis to determine which environmental characteristics they are evaluating. A similar procedure classifies sites on the basis of patterned relationships with the characteristics. These patterns are then imposed on nearby areas yet to be investigated. If strong similarities are observed, occupation potential is assumed.
In the Piceance Creek Basin, the locations of 126 prehistoric and historic occupation sites were evaluated against 37 items of landform, drainage configuration, vegetation, and intersite distance. Fifteen of these items were found to be significant. They formed four clusters: primary and secondary drainage association, and elevation and topographic variability. Sites were grouped into nine types representing the observed statistical diversity between site distribution and present day environment. Fifteen sites were subsequently rejected as unique.
This methodology is unsuitable as an explanatory tool because paleoenvironmental and chronological data are absent. Its utility lies in the ability afforded the investigator to predict site locations within a region, after preliminary sampling has been completed. In this way, the economy of future investigations may be improved.